Still many unknowns—be safe

Hello! Welcome to the next edition of my weekly habit of sharing.

As California begins opening up this week, I have to put it out there: I’m worried.

Experts agree we’re far from the end of the pandemic. Here in the U.S. particularly we’re likely to see an ongoing patchwork across the country of more sharp increases (and up and down again) until we learn how to beat the virus.

2. There can be a false sense of safety when the government tells us we can safely gather again—despite the fact that they really don’t know. The virus continues to spread, and Science does not yet know how Covid-19 spreads.  Evidence points to primary airborne transmission person to person with prolonged contact—but transmission is not proven. Particularly, they don’t fully understand “superspreading events” and clusters—they don’t know why some people seem to spread the virus far and others do not. They just don’t know yet.

3. I’m also worried because we humans suffer from cognitive biases—“flaws in rational judgement” baked into our brains. One of those biases is exponential growth bias. Most of us can’t foresee how fast small numbers of cases in a community can balloon into very large numbers. And then there’s the “not me” bias.  I’m not old. I’m healthy.  I don’t have a disease so I’m not at risk. Yet, Science doesn’t fully understand all the risk factors, why the Covid-19 coronavirus is deadly for some people and not others (that link is a particularly good summary of research to date). So again, false sense of safety.

4. Finally, it seems that too many believe our feckless leader and his growing list of untruths about this very complex disease event. Or they simply don’t care.

So this is all to say that I am afraid that will let down their guard. As businesses, restaurants, bars and venues, reopen we will gather more. We’ll eat and drink near strangers, inside buildings. We won’t be as vigilant about social distancing, washing hands, keeping our hands from our faces in public…

Please don’t be one of those people.  I get that our mental, social and economic health requires we open up a bit—but be cautious.  Pressure your employer to maintain safe practices. Keep your distances and gather outside. Maintain hygiene vigilance.  We will learn how to beat the virus, which I believe will include how to gather safely—but until science and leaders know how, we have to take our own health—and those of all those we want to keep close and alive—in our own hands.

5. Okay. Now reward yourself for reading all the above excellent and challenging links with a four minute reminder to enjoy life. Also - this sweet comic: The Only One in Here

Peace and joy until next week—

Denise

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